NJ Governor Race Exit Polls?
Hello guys I'm following the governor race on tv while reading a forum. A user made this nice comparison between registration numbers and exit polls over the last 9 years:
2000: 56% IND, 25% DEM, 19% REP (Exit Poll: 30% IND, 40% DEM, 30% REP)
2002: 56% IND, 25% DEM, 19% REP
2004: 59% IND, 23% DEM, 18% REP (Exit Poll: 30% IND, 39% DEM, 31% REP)
2006: 58% IND, 24% DEM, 18% REP (Exit Poll: 31% IND, 41% DEM, 28% REP)
2008: 47% IND, 33% DEM, 20% REP (Exit Poll: 28% IND, 44% DEM, 28% REP)
2009: 46% IND, 34% DEM, 20% REP
So, I guess the most likely composition in this election will be:
44% DEM, 30% REP and 26% IND or 45% DEM, 29% REP and 26% IND
Any reason why the percentage of NJ Democrats increased so sharply between 2006 and 2009 ?
What do you think?